tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:12 RDU → 18:42 ORD
    UA 630 · United · 2h 30m · 45% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 ORD → 22:27 PHX
    UA 602 · United · 3h 57m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 63 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 48m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 15mRDU 17:12 to PHX 22:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.