tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 30m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:31 XNA
    UA 5767 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 01m · 62% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 30m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 18mMSP 17:13 to XNA 23:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.