tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Hebron via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 ORD → 22:26 CVG
    UA 5785 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 64% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 13mMSP 17:13 to CVG 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.