tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFO
    UA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 44mMSP 17:13 to SFO 22:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.