Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Minneapolis → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 46%
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17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORDUA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
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1h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:05 ORD → 22:34 SANUA 1531 · United · 4h 29m · 77% on time, 2.8% cancelled
Total trip 7h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip7h 21mMSP 17:13 to SAN 22:34, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.