tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:57 ORD → 21:45 BNA
    UA 2063 · United · 1h 48m · 51% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 32mMSP 17:13 to BNA 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.