tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 ORD → 21:59 LAS
    UA 2242 · United · 4h 09m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 46mMSP 17:13 to LAS 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.