tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:02 ORD → 22:59 IAH
    UA 2813 · United · 2h 57m · 56% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 46mMSP 17:13 to IAH 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.