tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:13 MSP → 19:00 ORD
    UA 658 · United · 1h 47m · 57% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 ORD → 23:39 EWR
    UA 759 · United · 2h 32m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 26mMSP 17:13 to EWR 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.