tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 16:45 EWR → 18:34 ORD
    UA 661 · United · 2h 49m · 50% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFO
    UA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip9h 12mEWR 16:45 to SFO 22:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.