tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 16:45 EWR → 18:34 ORD
    UA 661 · United · 2h 49m · 50% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:57 ORD → 21:45 BNA
    UA 2063 · United · 1h 48m · 51% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip6h 00mEWR 16:45 to BNA 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.