tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:45 EWR → 18:34 ORD
    UA 661 · United · 2h 49m · 50% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 ORD → 21:26 STL
    UA 2144 · United · 1h 31m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 41mEWR 16:45 to STL 21:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.