Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Newark → Santa Ana via Chicago: arrives on time 50%
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16:45 EWR → 18:34 ORDUA 661 · United · 2h 49m · 50% on time, 3.3% cancelled
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1h 11m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:45 ORD → 22:19 SNAUA 308 · United · 4h 34m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled
Total trip 8h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip8h 34mEWR 16:45 to SNA 22:19, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.