tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:25 LAS → 20:23 ORD
    UA 706 · United · 3h 58m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 23:59 SDF
    UA 3659 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 73% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 34mLAS 14:25 to SDF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.