tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Dulles via San Francisco: arrives on time 38%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 15:48 SFO
    UA 737 · United · 2h 18m · 56% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:34 SFO → 00:55 IAD +1 day
    UA 1453 · United · 5h 21m · 87% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 25mSEA 13:30 to IAD 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.