tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → St Louis via Newark: arrives on time 18%

  1. 19:10 JAX → 21:30 EWR
    UA 758 · United · 2h 20m · 45% on time, 9.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:17 EWR → 23:44 STL
    UA 1527 · United · 2h 27m · 57% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (9.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 34mJAX 19:10 to STL 23:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.