tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:38 BWI → 20:02 ORD
    UA 791 · United · 2h 24m · 53% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:28 ORD → 23:10 MSP
    UA 1131 · United · 1h 42m · 59% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 32mBWI 18:38 to MSP 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.