Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Baltimore → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 43%
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18:38 BWI → 20:02 ORDUA 791 · United · 2h 24m · 53% on time, 5.6% cancelled
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1h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:25 ORD → 23:59 SDFUA 3659 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 73% on time, 11.1% cancelled
Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 21mBWI 18:38 to SDF 23:59, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.