tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Dallas via Denver: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:00 SMF → 19:20 DEN
    WN 1001 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DEN → 23:30 DAL
    WN 1523 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 41% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip5h 30mSMF 16:00 to DAL 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.