tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Nashville via Denver: arrives on time 19%

  1. 16:00 SMF → 19:20 DEN
    WN 1001 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DEN → 23:40 BNA
    WN 4429 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip5h 40mSMF 16:00 to BNA 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.