tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 19:00 BWI → 20:05 MDW
    WN 1005 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 73% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MDW → 00:30 SEA +1 day
    WN 4144 · Southwest · 4h 30m · 57% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 70 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 55m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 30mBWI 19:00 to SEA 00:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.