tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Phoenix via Milwaukee: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:25 BWI → 19:30 MKE
    WN 1014 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 50% on time, 9.5% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Milwaukee (MKE) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 MKE → 22:05 PHX
    WN 2955 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (9.5% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 40mBWI 18:25 to PHX 22:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.