tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → St Louis via Nashville: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:40 MDW → 20:10 BNA
    WN 1073 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 BNA → 22:55 STL
    WN 682 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 13mMDW 18:40 to STL 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.