tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:25 LGA → 17:05 MDW
    WN 1095 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 59% on time, 18.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 MDW → 19:10 STL
    WN 2904 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (18.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 45mLGA 15:25 to STL 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.