tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Phoenix via San Francisco: arrives on time 14%

  1. 14:50 BWI → 17:30 SFO
    WN 1101 · Southwest · 5h 40m · 22% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 SFO → 21:00 PHX
    WN 3651 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 41% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip9h 10mBWI 14:50 to PHX 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.