tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Burbank via San Francisco: arrives on time 21%

  1. 14:50 BWI → 17:30 SFO
    WN 1101 · Southwest · 5h 40m · 22% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 SFO → 20:15 BUR
    WN 4228 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 49% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip8h 25mBWI 14:50 to BUR 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.