tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 25%

  1. 20:30 DAL → 21:15 LAS
    WN 1128 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 LAS → 00:18 SMF +1 day
    WN 4226 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Times are local. Both flew on 12 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip5h 48mDAL 20:30 to SMF 00:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.