tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 16:45 CLE → 17:05 MDW
    WN 1162 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 82% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 30mCLE 16:45 to PHX 20:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.