tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → San Francisco via Las Vegas: arrives on time 27%

  1. 20:00 TUS → 21:25 LAS
    WN 1195 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 LAS → 00:32 SFO +1 day
    WN 2784 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 40% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip4h 33mTUS 20:00 to SFO 00:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.