tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 10%

  1. 20:00 TUS → 21:25 LAS
    WN 1195 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 3h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip3h 27mTUS 20:00 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.