tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → New York via Indianapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 19:30 DEN → 12:32 IND
    WN 1211 · Southwest · 2h 32m · 37% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 16m layover in Indianapolis (IND) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 14:48 IND → 16:58 LGA
    DL 5642 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 10m · 84% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip -272m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 16m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip-272mDEN 19:30 to LGA 16:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.