tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Newark via Louisville: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:45 MDW → 10:05 SDF
    WN 1267 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 02m layover in Louisville (SDF) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:07 SDF → 15:30 EWR
    UA 3694 · United, flown by Republic · 2h 23m · 87% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 92 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 02m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip6h 45mMDW 07:45 to EWR 15:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.