tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wichita → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:55 ICT → 17:55 MDW
    WN 1276 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 85% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MDW → 22:15 PHX
    WN 2863 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 48% on time, 8.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Wichita). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (8.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 20mICT 15:55 to PHX 22:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.