tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Burbank via Las Vegas: arrives on time 55%

  1. 10:50 SMF → 12:20 LAS
    WN 1285 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 LAS → 14:25 BUR
    WN 2203 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 82% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip3h 35mSMF 10:50 to BUR 14:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.