tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Phoenix via San Diego: arrives on time 16%

  1. 19:00 TPA → 20:55 SAN
    WN 133 · Southwest · 4h 55m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 SAN → 23:15 PHX
    WN 3527 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 47% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 10mTPA 19:00 to PHX 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.