tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Chicago via Dallas: arrives on time 18%

  1. 15:05 SEA → 21:00 DAL
    WN 1404 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 16% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:22 DAL → 01:00 MDW +1 day
    WN 1359 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 34% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (34%).
Total trip7h 32mSEA 15:05 to MDW 01:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.