tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Washington via St Louis: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:00 DAL → 14:45 STL
    WN 1412 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 71% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 STL → 18:45 DCA
    WN 3907 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 52% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 45mDAL 13:00 to DCA 18:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.