tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 35%

  1. 10:50 SFO → 16:55 STL
    WN 1417 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 23% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 STL → 19:35 MDW
    WN 596 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 52% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip6h 45mSFO 10:50 to MDW 19:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.