tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Nashville: arrives on time 18%

  1. 19:30 DCA → 20:30 BNA
    WN 1428 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 18.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 BNA → 19:10 MDW
    WN 578 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (18.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip4h 40mDCA 19:30 to MDW 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.