tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Las Vegas via Houston: arrives on time 29%

  1. 19:15 MDW → 21:50 HOU
    WN 1431 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 51% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 HOU → 23:55 LAS
    WN 1058 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 40mMDW 19:15 to LAS 23:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.