tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Houston: arrives on time 16%

  1. 12:48 DCA → 14:58 HOU
    WN 1433 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 47% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:58 HOU → 18:22 MDW
    WN 2042 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 36% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip6h 35mDCA 12:48 to MDW 18:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.