tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Chicago via Sacramento: arrives on time 61%

  1. 20:25 LAS → 22:00 SMF
    WN 1435 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 57% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 50m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:50 SMF → 05:45 MDW +1 day
    WN 3802 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 15 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 65 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 50m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip7h 20mLAS 20:25 to MDW 05:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.