tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Miami via Orlando: arrives on time 14%

  1. 17:25 DCA → 19:55 MCO
    WN 1441 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 32% on time, 14.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 MCO → 22:05 MIA
    WN 1516 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection22%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 78% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (14.3% are) × connection made (22%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 40mDCA 17:25 to MIA 22:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.