tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 19:00 DCA → 20:10 MDW
    WN 1447 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 38% on time, 7.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (7.7% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip8h 12mDCA 19:00 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.