tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Oakland via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 19:00 DCA → 20:10 MDW
    WN 1447 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 38% on time, 7.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 MDW → 00:15 OAK +1 day
    WN 4042 · Southwest · 4h 30m · 48% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (7.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 10mDCA 19:00 to OAK 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.