tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Valparaiso via St Louis: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:35 DCA → 15:50 STL
    WN 1461 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 STL → 19:15 VPS
    WN 3988 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 40mDCA 14:35 to VPS 19:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.