tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New Orleans via Tampa: arrives on time 48%

  1. 13:10 DCA → 15:35 TPA
    WN 1464 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 30% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 TPA → 17:45 MSY
    WN 4038 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 35mDCA 13:10 to MSY 17:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.