tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Las Vegas via Dallas: arrives on time 30%

  1. 10:00 MDW → 12:15 DAL
    WN 1487 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:05 DAL → 13:45 LAS
    WN 3061 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 48% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 45mMDW 10:00 to LAS 13:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.