tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Reno via Denver: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:00 MDW → 19:45 DEN
    WN 1497 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:08 DEN → 22:32 RNO
    WN 1696 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 33mMDW 18:00 to RNO 22:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.