tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Seattle via Denver: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:00 MDW → 19:45 DEN
    WN 1497 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 DEN → 23:10 SEA
    WN 3856 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 28% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip7h 05mMDW 18:00 to SEA 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.